Super Typhoon Dolphin May Temporarily Affect India's Monsoon, Say Weather Experts

As Super Typhoon Dolphin intensifies over the western Pacific and heads toward Japan, weather experts are closely monitoring its possible impact on India's southwest monsoon.

The powerful storm is not expected to make landfall in India, but its influence on atmospheric circulation could temporarily reduce rainfall across parts of the country by affecting the formation of rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal.

Where Is Typhoon Dolphin Now?

According to the latest forecasts, Typhoon Dolphin is located about 540 kilometres east of Minamidaito Island and is moving westward at around 17 kmph.

The storm has intensified into a super typhoon, packing sustained winds of around 175 kmph, with gusts reaching 210 kmph.

Meteorologists expect the cyclone to approach Japan's Daito Islands before moving towards Okinawa, bringing:

• Destructive winds exceeding 175 kmph
• Heavy rainfall between 100 mm and 200 mm
• Isolated rainfall up to 350 mm
• Waves reaching 10–11 metres across the Ryukyu and Amami Islands

How Can a Typhoon Near Japan Affect India's Monsoon?

Although separated by thousands of kilometres, the western Pacific and the Indian monsoon are closely linked through large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Meteorologists explain that a powerful typhoon competes with the Indian monsoon for heat, moisture and atmospheric energy.

When an intense cyclone develops over the western North Pacific:

• Thunderstorm activity increases over the Pacific.
• Convective activity over the Bay of Bengal weakens.
• Formation of low-pressure systems over the Bay slows down.
• Rainfall across central, eastern and northern India may temporarily reduce.

Since the Bay of Bengal is the primary source of monsoon depressions that bring widespread rain across India, any disruption in these systems can briefly weaken monsoon activity.

Will India Experience a Break Monsoon?

Weather experts say Typhoon Dolphin alone is unlikely to trigger a prolonged break in the southwest monsoon.

Its impact will depend on:

• How long the typhoon remains extremely powerful.
• Whether it continues westward into the South China Sea.
• Whether it curves towards eastern China before weakening.

Current forecast models remain divided, with possible landfall locations ranging from Wenzhou to Taizhou along China's eastern coast.

Other Climate Factors Also Influence India's Rainfall

Meteorologists point out that India's monsoon is currently being shaped by several large-scale climate drivers, including:

• El Niño conditions
• The evolving Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
• Frequency of Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems
• Regional atmospheric circulation

Typhoon Dolphin may only act as a temporary influencing factor within this broader weather pattern.

When Will the Monsoon Recover?

Experts expect monsoon conditions to improve once Typhoon Dolphin weakens or moves away from the western Pacific.

As atmospheric circulation returns to normal, the Bay of Bengal is likely to once again become favourable for the formation of low-pressure systems that bring widespread rainfall across India.

What This Means for India

For now, there is no cyclone threat to India from Typhoon Dolphin.

However, some regions may witness a short-lived reduction in rainfall if the storm temporarily suppresses weather system development over the Bay of Bengal.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the cyclone's track and intensity to assess any further impact on India's ongoing monsoon season.

FAQs

Is Typhoon Dolphin coming to India?

No. Typhoon Dolphin is moving towards Japan and poses no direct threat to India.

Can a typhoon affect India's monsoon?

Yes. Powerful typhoons over the western Pacific can temporarily suppress the formation of monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal, reducing rainfall for a short period.

Will Typhoon Dolphin cause a break monsoon?

Experts say the storm alone is unlikely to trigger a prolonged break monsoon. Any impact on rainfall is expected to be temporary.

Why is the Bay of Bengal important for India's monsoon?

The Bay of Bengal is the primary breeding ground for low-pressure systems and depressions that bring widespread monsoon rainfall across India.