Diwali Picks 2025: Build Portfolio Smartly for Long-Term Market Gains

As markets stabilize ahead of Diwali, experts suggest that this may be the perfect window for investors to quietly accumulate quality stocks before the next major rally.

As Diwali 2025 draws near, the atmosphere on Dalal Street is one of calm optimism. The market may appear to be taking a breather, but analysts believe this “pause” is part of a broader uptrend. After months of volatility, the Nifty 50 has found a strong base near 24,000, setting the stage for its next upward leg.

According to Choice Broking’s Samvat 2082 report, the current consolidation represents “a healthy pause in an ongoing uptrend.” The brokerage projects Nifty targets of 26,500–28,000 by Diwali 2026, emphasizing that long-term investors should use this opportunity to build positions gradually.

Banking Stocks Lead the Festive Momentum

The Bank Nifty, currently near 56,500, has broken key resistance levels and established solid support around 54,000. With a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, analysts say the index is poised for further gains.
The medium-term target stands at 60,000–62,500, suggesting continued leadership from the banking sector.

Key buying zones remain between 53,500 and 54,000, making financials an attractive bet for investors seeking stability and growth.

Top Diwali Stock Picks for Investors

Choice Broking identifies several technically strong stocks that could deliver solid returns through the next Samvat year:

• Federal Bank (₹213) – Building momentum for a breakout above ₹220, with targets at ₹245–255.

• Cipla (₹1,545) – Forming an ascending triangle; a breakout above ₹1,580 may lead to ₹1,770–1,850.

• Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) (₹1,485) – Strong technical structure supports upside potential toward ₹1,700–1,785.

• Ashok Leyland (₹135) – “Rounding bottom” pattern signals possible rally to ₹151–158 after a sustained close above ₹140.

• SAIL (₹129) – “Cup and handle” setup; a breakout above ₹138 may drive gains toward ₹147–153.

Each of these stocks has clearly defined support zones and stop-loss levels, offering disciplined investors attractive risk-reward setups.

Samvat 2082: Outlook and Predictions

Nuvama Wealth Research sees resilience as the defining theme for Samvat 2082. Despite global uncertainties, India’s markets remain buoyant, supported by domestic inflows, policy stability, and macro strength.

With mutual fund SIPs hitting ₹2.5 lakh crore, forex reserves near record highs, and inflation under control, the fundamentals remain solid. Global rate cuts expected in FY26 could further boost liquidity and valuations.

Valuations at 19–20x forward earnings are near long-term averages—suggesting room for steady growth.

Nuvama’s Long-Term Stock Favourites

• Bank of India – Transitioned from “sell on rise” to “buy on dip,” reflecting a structural turnaround.

• BEML – Riding a strong multi-year breakout with potential upside continuation.

• Can Fin Homes – Rebounding from lower channel support, mirroring past 100% return phases.

• Graphite India – Broke out of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, signaling a potential multi-year rally.

• Vedanta – Completed a textbook 15-year cup-and-handle breakout; likely to deliver multi-fold returns.

Sectors Poised to Outperform

1. Metals – Supported by a weaker dollar, China’s stimulus, and India’s infrastructure boom.

2. PSU Banks – Cleaner balance sheets and improved profitability mark a structural revival.

3. Large Caps – Regaining investor confidence as valuations normalize post mid-cap rally.

Thematic Bets for 2025–26

According to Anubhav Mukerjee, Partner at Prescient Capital, the next Samvat cycle will reward thematic investors focusing on long-term transformations:

• Auto Components – Benefiting from India’s EV transition and premiumisation.

• Power & Transmission – Massive capacity expansion and data centre demand driving growth.

• Chemicals – Signs of recovery after years of Chinese price pressure.

• Microfinance – Strong comeback with healthier loan books and expansion opportunities.

• Logistics – Revival supported by industry consolidation and e-commerce demand.

Investment Wisdom for Diwali 2025

Each Diwali, investors light diyas and make symbolic trades during the Muhurat session. But in 2025, experts recommend patience over celebration trades. The real wealth creation will come not from short-term fireworks but from steady accumulation and sector rotation.

This festive season, let your portfolio reflect not impulse, but intention — invest quietly, compound consistently, and stay aligned with India’s long-term growth story.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of experts and brokerages. Investors should consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.