Equity vs Gold vs PPF: What 30 Years of Data Suggest for Wealth Creation

Investors often seek the best-performing asset class, considering options such as equities, fixed-income instruments like Public Provident Fund (PPF) and bank fixed deposits (FDs), and precious metals like gold. Historical data over 15, 20, and 30 years indicates that equities generally outperform other asset classes over the long term.

Diversification plays a key role in enhancing returns. Broader market indices, such as Nifty 500, which include a wider selection of companies, have historically outperformed benchmark indices. Between 1995 and 2005, Nifty 500 delivered a CAGR of 15.2%, compared to 14.1% for Sensex, 12.5% for gold, 8.1% for PPF, and 7.2% for FDs. Similar trends persist over 20-year and 15-year periods.

Analysts note that equities provide 14–15% CAGR over 20–30 years, significantly higher than fixed-income instruments (7–8%) or gold (10–11%). The long-term equity outperformance is attributed to India’s fast-growing economy, improving corporate governance, rising corporate profitability, and strong retail and institutional inflows.

While gold has seen a nearly 28% rally this year, its long-term returns, averaging 11–12%, provide a reliable diversifier due to lower volatility and low correlation with equities or fixed income. Gold remains crucial for diversification and risk management, whereas equities continue to anchor long-term wealth creation.

Portfolio Allocation Guidance

Equities are highly volatile in the short term, so portfolio allocation should consider an investor’s horizon, risk appetite, age, and income stability.

• Young, Aggressive Investor (20s–30s):

  • 70% equities (40% Nifty 50, 15% Nifty 500, 15% Mid- and Small-cap funds)

  • 15% debt for emergency liquidity

  • 15% gold (physical or ETFs) for inflation hedge

• Older Investor (60+ years):

  • 15–20% equities

  • 65–70% fixed income for regular income

  • Remaining allocation to gold for inflation protection

Experts emphasize that balancing high-risk and low-risk asset classes is essential to manage short-term volatility while pursuing long-term wealth creation.