Indian Stock Market Outlook: 5 Key Triggers to Watch This Week — Auto Sales, GST Council Meet, Trump Tariffs & More

The Indian stock market ended its third consecutive session in the red on Friday, August 29, as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff measures and their potential global impact weighed on investor sentiment. The Sensex closed 271 points lower at 79,809.65 (-0.34%), while the Nifty 50 slipped 74 points to 24,426.85 (-0.30%). The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices also fell by 0.41% and 0.29%, respectively.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, market performance in the coming week is likely to remain mixed, with sectors driven by domestic demand — such as FMCG, consumer durables, cement, and infrastructure — expected to benefit from GST-related developments and continued government spending.

“India’s resilience, backed by strong Q1 GDP growth and supportive policies, offers a cushion against external shocks. However, fiscal concerns and unresolved tariff disputes remain a key overhang,” Nair added.

Here are the top five triggers that investors should keep an eye on this week:

1. Auto Sales Data

The month of August has ended, and leading automakers and two-wheeler manufacturers are set to release their monthly sales figures. These numbers will provide critical insights into consumer demand trends during the festive season.

2. Trump Tariffs on India

Indian exporters continue to feel the pinch of elevated U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration, including a 50% levy on Indian goods that took effect on August 27. Analysts warn that the move threatens $45 billion worth of exports, eroding India’s competitiveness against peers like China (30% tariff), Vietnam (20%), and Japan (15%).

“The coming week will be challenging for Indian equities, as markets digest the implications of the newly implemented U.S. tariffs,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.

3. GST Council Meeting

The 56th GST Council meeting is scheduled for September 3–4 in New Delhi. Key discussions include potential restructuring of the GST framework into a two-rate system, as proposed by the Central Government. Any major policy announcements could significantly impact FMCG, retail, and manufacturing sectors.

4. Global Cues

Global developments remain in focus after a U.S. federal appeals court ruled that some of Trump’s global tariffs were unlawfully imposed, raising questions about executive powers in trade policy. Additionally, markets are anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in its upcoming policy meeting, which could influence liquidity and capital flows.

5. FIIs and DIIs Activity

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued heavy selling in the derivatives segment last week, with sharp short positions in index options (₹7,559 crore) and index futures (₹1,239 crore). Unless strong domestic inflows counterbalance this trend, volatility may remain elevated.

Analysts suggest that a multi-cap approach could help investors navigate near-term uncertainty, while keeping an eye on macroeconomic data such as PMI readings, U.S. jobless claims, and payroll numbers.