Why Mohan Bhagwat Warns India Against Becoming ‘Another Japan’

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat has urged Indian families to have at least three children, warning against a demographic trend similar to Japan’s declining population. Bhagwat said a falling birth rate could pose long-term challenges to India’s social and economic stability.

Speaking at an event earlier this week, Bhagwat cited Japan’s shrinking population as a cautionary example. The East Asian nation recorded a decline of nearly one million people last year—the sharpest fall in its history—raising concerns over workforce shortages and economic slowdown.

“Doctors have told me that marrying at the right age and having three children ensures good health for parents and children. Families with three siblings also maintain better balance in relationships,” Bhagwat said. He added that communities with fertility rates at or below 2.1 risk gradual extinction, emphasizing the need to maintain a higher birth rate.

India’s fertility rate has been declining in recent years, with several southern states reporting figures below replacement level. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has also warned against falling birth rates, citing the potential impact on workforce and social stability.

Globally, concerns over population decline have grown. Business leaders, including Elon Musk, have described low birth rates as one of the most significant challenges facing modern societies.

Japan’s demographic crisis stems from decades of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Nearly 30% of its population is above the age of 65, while the fertility rate has fallen to 1.2 children per woman—well below the replacement rate of 2.1. This trend has led to labour shortages, an aging workforce, and increasing pressure on social welfare systems.

Despite government incentives such as cash handouts, subsidized childcare, and extended parental leave, Japan has struggled to reverse the trend. Social factors, including long working hours, rigid corporate structures, and traditional expectations of women, have made balancing work and family life difficult.

For India, demographers warn that ignoring this trend could erode the country’s demographic advantage before it fully benefits from it.