PM Modi-Xi Jinping Bilateral Likely at BRICS, First in India Since Galwan

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in New Delhi on September 12. If the meeting takes place, it would be the first formal bilateral interaction between the two leaders in India since the deadly Galwan Valley clash of 2020.

Xi is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi on Saturday to attend the 18th BRICS Leaders' Summit, which India will host on September 12 and 13. His visit will also be his first trip to India in seven years and his first since the border crisis between the two countries in 2020. However, neither New Delhi nor Beijing has officially confirmed the proposed Modi-Xi bilateral meeting so far.

The expected talks are being closely watched as India and China attempt to gradually stabilise relations after years of military tensions, diplomatic strain and difficulties in economic engagement. The two leaders recently attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, where they shook hands but did not hold a formal bilateral meeting.

Diplomatic activity between India and China has increased ahead of Xi's proposed visit. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently travelled to China for high-level discussions, while the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs has also held talks. The two countries' Special Representatives have separately engaged on the long-standing boundary issue.

The renewed diplomatic contacts come after the two sides disengaged troops from several friction points along the Line of Actual Control. While the disengagement has helped lower the immediate possibility of another military confrontation, the broader boundary dispute remains unresolved.

Relations between India and China deteriorated sharply following the June 2020 clash in Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh. Twenty Indian soldiers were killed during the confrontation, while China subsequently acknowledged the deaths of four of its soldiers. The incident triggered a prolonged military stand-off along the LAC and severely affected political, diplomatic and economic ties.

Since the Galwan clash, India and China have conducted numerous rounds of military and diplomatic negotiations aimed at reducing tensions and resolving issues at different friction points. The gradual disengagement has created some space for renewed diplomatic engagement, although significant differences remain.

The proposed meeting between Modi and Xi would therefore carry substantial political importance. It could provide an opportunity for both sides to discuss ways to maintain peace along the border while rebuilding dialogue and expanding areas of cooperation.

Arunachal Pradesh is expected to remain an important concern in any discussion on the boundary dispute. China claims the entire Indian state and refers to it as "Zangnan", or southern Tibet. India has firmly rejected Beijing's claim and maintains that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral and inalienable part of the country.

Recent reports of increased Chinese military activity and aggressive posturing in the Upper Subansiri region of Arunachal Pradesh have added to concerns over the eastern sector. The developments come as New Delhi and Beijing attempt to improve bilateral relations while managing unresolved territorial differences.

India has repeatedly stressed that maintaining peace and tranquillity along the border is essential for the overall development of relations with China. Beijing has also continued to issue alternative names for locations in Arunachal Pradesh since 2017. New Delhi has rejected the practice, saying changing the names of places in Indian territory does not alter their legal or territorial status.

India has likewise dismissed China's objections to New Delhi's decision to formally identify 27 places and geographical features in Arunachal Pradesh using their standard Indian names.

If the Modi-Xi bilateral takes place, the leaders could discuss the boundary question, regional security, trade, investment, people-to-people ties and mechanisms to prevent renewed escalation along the LAC.

The meeting would also come amid a complicated global environment, including economic and geopolitical pressures linked to US tariff measures and instability following US military interventions in West Asia.

For India, renewed engagement with China is likely to focus on balancing two priorities: preserving peace and stability along the border while expanding economic and diplomatic cooperation where it serves the country's strategic interests.

For China, high-level engagement with India could help consolidate the recent improvement in bilateral ties and strengthen cooperation through BRICS and other multilateral platforms.