Reliance Shares Drop Over 2% Post-AGM Despite Jio IPO Timeline and AI Initiatives

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) fell more than 2% on Friday on the Bombay Stock Exchange, even as Chairman Mukesh Ambani assured investors that the highly anticipated Reliance Jio IPO is on track for the first half of 2026.

Addressing shareholders at the Annual General Meeting (AGM), Ambani described Jio as having the potential to deliver value comparable to global technology leaders and called the IPO an “attractive opportunity” for investors.

The sell-off after major AGMs has become a recurring trend for RIL. Over the past four years, the stock has typically declined post-AGM as investor expectations exceed actual announcements.

Reasons Behind the Decline

Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, explained that while the IPO timeline was confirmed, some investors were expecting a 2025 listing. “This tempered the initial excitement and led to a negative reaction,” he said.

Meena added that RIL’s stock historically experiences short-term volatility post-AGM. “Investor expectations often build up, but the announcements, while significant, don’t always deliver the ‘big surprise’ needed to sustain a rally.”

Despite the near-term dip, the long-term outlook for RIL remains positive. “The company is well-positioned for sustained growth due to its diversified business model and strategic investments. Upcoming IPOs of Jio and Reliance Retail are expected to unlock significant value, while initiatives in AI and New Energy will drive future growth,” Meena noted.

IPO and Regulatory Updates

The market has long awaited the listings of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail. Ambani initially set a five-year timeline in 2019, which has now elapsed. While brokerages remain bullish, they caution about structural challenges. Nuvama notes that separate listings could unlock value but might be tempered by a holding company discount.

Recent SEBI proposals further impact IPOs. Companies with a post-IPO market capitalization exceeding Rs 5 lakh crore would now need to float only 2.5% of equity instead of 5%. For Jio, valued at over $120 billion by Citi, this implies limited supply at listing and potentially lower holding company discount risk.

AI and Energy Initiatives

AI took center stage at this year’s AGM. Reliance is developing JioBrain, a platform to deliver smart services across its ecosystem. Updates were also shared on JioAirFiber, indigenous 5G technology, and digital platforms such as Jio Hotstar.

On the energy front, Reliance is expanding its green initiatives with a gigawatt-scale solar PV module plant and integrated giga-factories for solar, batteries, and green hydrogen. Investors are closely watching timelines, cost efficiencies, and adoption of new technologies like Perovskite solar cells.

Reliance Retail and Growth Prospects

Reliance Retail continues to be a key growth driver. Ambani aims to double revenues and EBITDA by 2030. Investors seek clarity on quick commerce, the Shein fashion joint venture, FMCG expansion, and consumer services performance.

Brokerages maintain positive ratings on RIL. Jefferies recommends “Buy” with a target of Rs 1,670, JP Morgan is “Overweight” at Rs 1,695, UBS pegs it at Rs 1,550, and Bank of America targets Rs 1,660. Macquarie added Reliance to its Asia Marquee list at Rs 1,580, while Nuvama leads with a Rs 1,801 target, citing potential value unlocking in Jio and Retail.