The world's six largest oil and gas companies are projected to earn a combined $45 billion during the April–June quarter, nearly doubling their earnings from the previous quarter, according to estimates released by Oxfam.

The projected windfall comes as global oil prices climbed following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, a new analysis has reignited the debate over corporate responsibility for climate change, linking the historical emissions of major fossil fuel producers to conditions that contributed to roughly one in four heatwaves recorded worldwide since 2000.

Which Companies Are Expected to Report Higher Profits?

The analysis covers six of the world's largest energy companies:

• BP
• Chevron
• ExxonMobil
• Shell
• TotalEnergies
• Eni

According to Oxfam's projections:

• Combined quarterly profits could rise from $23 billion in the January–March quarter to approximately $45 billion.
• Full-year profits are estimated to reach $147 billion, exceeding earnings from the previous seven quarters combined.
• Chevron's quarterly profit is expected to increase more than fourfold.
• ExxonMobil's earnings are projected to more than triple.

Oxfam estimates that during the quarter:

• ExxonMobil earned roughly $1,800 every second.
• Chevron generated approximately $1,200 per second.
• Shell earned close to $1,000 per second.

What Does the Climate Analysis Say?

Oxfam's findings are based on peer-reviewed research published in the journal Nature, which examined 213 heatwave events recorded worldwide between 2000 and 2023.

According to the analysis:

• Around 55 heatwaves would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.
• Historical emissions from BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies were each linked to conditions that made roughly one in four global heatwaves possible.
• Data for Italy-based Eni was not available.

Researchers also found that the world's 180 largest fossil fuel and cement producers accounted for nearly half of the increase in global heatwave intensity since the pre-industrial era.

Experts Say Climate Attribution Science Is Becoming Stronger

Climate scientists say attribution research has become increasingly reliable.

Prof. Rajiv Chaturvedi, Associate Professor at BITS Pilani and a lead author for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (Working Group II), said the overall scientific conclusions are consistent with current climate research.

He noted that cumulative carbon dioxide emissions have a direct relationship with rising global temperatures and that heatwaves are among the easiest extreme weather events to scientifically attribute to climate change because of their direct connection with warming.

Since carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for centuries, historical emissions continue influencing today's climate.

India Among Countries Facing Severe Heat

The report comes as several regions continue to experience extreme temperatures.

According to the analysis:

• India and Pakistan experienced prolonged heatwaves during 2026.
• In May, 97 of the world's 100 hottest cities were located in India.

Oxfam argues that communities are facing multiple burdens—from climate disasters and rising energy prices to increasing living costs associated with dependence on fossil fuels.

Industry Says Transition Is Underway

Energy companies and industry experts maintain that the sector is investing in cleaner technologies while continuing to meet global energy demand.

According to industry representatives:

• More than 150 oil and gas companies have joined the UN's Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0).
• Companies are increasing investments in renewable energy, cleaner fuels, electrification and methane reduction.

In India:

• ONGC aims to develop 10 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
• Indian Oil Corporation is expanding renewable energy projects, EV charging infrastructure and sustainable aviation fuel research.
• GAIL has increased renewable energy investment and adopted Scope 3 emissions targets.

Industry experts argue that consumer demand, government policies and technological progress will ultimately determine the pace of the energy transition.

Responsibility Goes Beyond Oil Producers

Independent experts caution that while fossil fuel companies have significantly contributed to global emissions, responsibility is shared across society.

Greenhouse gas emissions also come from:

• Coal and natural gas use
• Cement manufacturing
• Transportation
• Agriculture
• Deforestation
• Industrial activities

Experts stress that governments, businesses and consumers all play important roles in reducing emissions.

Oil Production Still Expected to Increase

Despite expanding investments in renewable energy, Oxfam says the six major oil companies still plan to increase oil and gas production by approximately 14% by 2030 compared with 2024 levels.

That would add roughly 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.

The report also notes:

• BP has significantly reduced planned investment in low-carbon projects.
• Shell has scaled back parts of its clean energy spending while continuing fossil fuel expansion.

Key Takeaways

• Six major oil companies are projected to earn $45 billion during the April–June quarter.
• A new analysis links historical emissions from major fossil fuel producers to conditions behind roughly one in four global heatwaves since 2000.
• Scientists say climate attribution research has become increasingly robust, though experts caution against assigning responsibility solely to oil producers.
• Industry representatives highlight ongoing investments in renewable energy and emissions reduction.
• The debate continues over how governments, companies and consumers should share responsibility for tackling climate change while ensuring global energy security.