Gold prices below ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams have brought some relief to Indian buyers preparing for the festive and wedding seasons. However, uncertainty over US inflation, interest rates and geopolitical tensions has left shoppers wondering whether to buy now or wait for a bigger correction.
At 1 pm on Tuesday, October 13, MCX gold was trading at ₹1,49,621 per 10 grams, up 0.05%. MCX silver stood at ₹2,22,950 per kilogram, gaining 0.03%.
According to Dr Renisha Chainani, chief research officer at Augmont, precious metals remained supported as crude oil prices eased. However, markets were closely watching upcoming US inflation data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Gold prices can come under pressure when interest rate expectations rise because the metal does not offer interest income. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns can support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
What Could Happen to Gold Prices Next?
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is among the key triggers traders are monitoring. A higher-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike and put renewed pressure on gold.
Chainani identified a potential buying range of $4,060–$4,100, equivalent to approximately ₹1,48,000–₹1,49,000, while suggesting a stop-loss below $4,000 for traders. A daily close above $4,300 could indicate that the correction has ended, with $4,400 emerging as a possible next level.
These are technical trading estimates, not guaranteed price targets. Currency movements, import costs and local premiums can also affect domestic gold prices.
Key MCX Gold Support and Resistance Levels
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, identified ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700 as an immediate resistance range for MCX gold, followed by ₹1,52,000–₹1,52,600.
On the downside, support levels were placed at ₹1,47,300–₹1,48,000 and ₹1,45,300–₹1,46,000.
Support refers to a price range where buying interest may emerge, while resistance is a level where upward momentum may weaken. Ponmudi also noted that technical indicators showed some improvement in momentum, although gold remained below its immediate resistance range.
Should You Buy Gold Now or Wait?
For wedding and festive purchases, the decision largely depends on when the gold is needed and how much price uncertainty the buyer can tolerate.
- For an upcoming wedding: Consider buying in stages rather than waiting for a steep correction that may not materialise.
- For investment: Monitor US inflation data and the identified MCX support levels before committing a large amount. Technical levels should not be treated as guaranteed entry points.
- For jewellery: Compare final prices across jewellers, check purity and hallmarking, and understand making charges, GST and buyback terms.
For silver, Chainani suggested a short-term trading range around ₹2,21,000–₹2,22,000, with a stop-loss below ₹2,15,800 and a target of ₹2,29,000. These levels relate to short-term trading and may not suit every retail buyer.
Gold trading below ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams may offer an opportunity, but further declines are not assured. Buyers who need jewellery soon may find staggered purchases more practical than trying to predict the exact market bottom. Investors should consider their time horizon, risk tolerance and overall portfolio before making a decision.
For official market-related information, visit the Multi Commodity Exchange of India.
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