Gold prices declined for a fourth consecutive session on October 21, offering some relief to Indian buyers preparing for Dhanteras, Diwali and the upcoming wedding season. However, uncertainty over crude oil prices, inflation and the US Federal Reserve’s next policy decision has raised questions about whether prices could fall further.
Around 11:30 am on Wednesday, MCX Gold was trading at ₹1,45,898 per 10 grams, down 0.42%. MCX Silver stood at ₹2,09,028 per kilogram, falling 1.16%, according to the figures cited in the market report.
Why Are Gold Prices Falling?
Higher crude oil prices have intensified concerns about inflation, while investors are awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week for clues about the direction of interest rates.
Rising oil prices can increase inflationary pressures and complicate expectations around monetary policy. Concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, including risks to shipping routes in the Red Sea and oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, have added to market uncertainty.
Gold prices are sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, making the upcoming Federal Reserve decision an important factor for traders.
Key Gold Price Levels to Watch
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, identified ₹1,45,300–₹1,46,000 as an immediate support zone for MCX Gold. He placed near-term resistance at ₹1,48,000–₹1,48,600, followed by ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700.
According to his assessment, the next important support range lies between ₹1,43,000 and ₹1,43,700 if prices fall below the current support zone.
Technical indicators also suggested weakness, with the Relative Strength Index near 40 and below its signal line. A widening negative MACD histogram indicated increasing downward momentum.
Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, identified ₹1,45,861, around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, as a key support level. He placed resistance at ₹1,47,415–₹1,47,900 and cautioned that a break below support could intensify selling pressure.
Should You Buy Gold Now or Wait?
For buyers planning jewellery purchases for Dhanteras, Diwali or weddings, the recent correction may offer an opportunity. However, the decline does not guarantee that gold has reached its lowest price.
Buyers with an upcoming occasion may consider purchasing in stages rather than committing their entire budget at once. Those with more flexibility could monitor support levels and the market’s reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting.
Retail jewellery prices also differ from MCX rates. Purity, city-level pricing, making charges and applicable GST affect the final bill.
People buying gold as an investment should consider their financial goals, investment horizon and overall asset allocation rather than relying solely on short-term price movements.
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