India Monsoon Withdrawal Begins: Dry Air to Spread After September 19

India Monsoon Withdrawal Begins: Dry Air to Spread After September 19

India’s southwest monsoon is entering its withdrawal phase, with northwest India expected to be the first region to see the rainy season retreat. Dry air is forecast to move into the area after September 19-20, reducing moisture and gradually bringing clearer skies and lower humidity.

The India Meteorological Department generally begins declaring monsoon withdrawal after September 1 when three conditions are met: rainfall remains absent for five consecutive days, dry air becomes established and a high-pressure system develops in the lower atmosphere. These changes replace moist monsoon winds with drier northwesterly winds.

The withdrawal usually begins around western Rajasthan and then progresses eastward and southward over several weeks, with the monsoon normally retreating from most of the country only after early October. This year, conditions are expected to become favourable for the process around September 19.

As dry air spreads, rainfall is likely to weaken across Rajasthan, parts of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and nearby areas. Reduced cloud cover could cause temperatures to rise slightly in the short term. However, rain will continue in several other regions.

A low-pressure area is also expected to develop over the Andaman Sea, potentially keeping rainfall active across parts of central and eastern India. As of September 17, India had recorded rainfall 15% below its long-term average, with the seasonal deficit unlikely to fully recover before the monsoon ends.

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