Gujarat Rain Alert: Heavy Showers Continue as Monsoon Withdrawal Nears

Rainfall activity is expected to remain strong across parts of western and central India on Tuesday, with Gujarat and Rajasthan continuing to be influenced by a low-pressure system. The weather pattern comes as the Southwest Monsoon begins showing early signs of its seasonal retreat from northwest India.

The low-pressure area is positioned over southeast Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat and remains the main system driving weather conditions across the region. Isolated extremely heavy rain is expected over Saurashtra and Kutch, while several parts of Gujarat could experience very heavy showers.

The system is also likely to maintain rainfall activity across parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and central India. An associated trough extends from the circulation linked to the low-pressure area towards Jharkhand through Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh. This feature can transport moisture and support cloud formation and rainfall across parts of central and eastern India.

Another upper-air cyclonic circulation has developed over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of north Odisha and West Bengal. The system could influence rainfall over eastern parts of the country.

A separate trough extending from south interior Karnataka towards the southwest Bay of Bengal is also expected to keep weather conditions active over parts of peninsular India.

Meanwhile, the broader seasonal weather pattern is beginning to shift over northwest India. Conditions are becoming favourable for the Southwest Monsoon to start withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan around September 19.

The monsoon's withdrawal from Rajasthan generally marks the beginning of its gradual retreat from the Indian subcontinent. However, heavy rainfall can continue in some regions even as the larger monsoon circulation weakens over northwest India.

A Western Disturbance is also present as a middle-level trough. For Tuesday, Gujarat and other parts of western and central India are expected to remain the main areas of rainfall activity as the monsoon enters its seasonal transition.