Tarique Rahman Returns to Bangladesh: Why It Could Be Good News for India

After nearly two decades in exile, Tarique Rahman, acting chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, returned to Dhaka on Thursday, marking a decisive political moment for Bangladesh ahead of the February general elections. Long described as the “dark prince” of Bangladeshi politics, Rahman’s homecoming comes amid deep unrest, rising radicalism and a rapidly shifting regional equation that carries direct implications for India.

Rahman arrived with his wife, Dr Zubaida Rahman, and daughter Zaima, ending a self-imposed exile of nearly 6,314 days. His return drew massive crowds, with the BNP claiming millions of supporters lined the route from the airport to his residence, under heavy security arrangements. The show of strength is seen as a clear attempt by the BNP to reassert itself as the principal national force at a time when the political landscape remains volatile.

For New Delhi, Rahman’s return is being closely watched. With the Awami League barred from contesting the upcoming polls and former prime minister Sheikh Hasina out of power, India faces the prospect of a recalibrated relationship with Dhaka. Concerns have grown under the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus, particularly over the resurgence of radical Islamist groups and the re-entry of Jamaat-e-Islami into mainstream politics.

In this context, the BNP is being viewed in India as a comparatively moderate and democratic alternative, despite historically strained ties. Analysts believe Rahman’s presence could consolidate the BNP vote base and prevent further political fragmentation, especially as the Jamaat and its student wing make electoral gains, including a recent upset at Dhaka University.

India is also encouraged by Rahman’s visible differences with the Yunus-led interim government. He has questioned the authority of the caretaker setup to take long-term foreign policy decisions and has distanced himself from the Jamaat, ruling out any pre-poll alliance. Earlier this year, Rahman articulated a “Bangladesh First” doctrine, signalling an intent to avoid overdependence on any external power. His remark — “Not Dilli, not Pindi, Bangladesh before everything” — was seen as an assertion of strategic autonomy rather than hostility towards India.

Recent gestures have hinted at a tentative thaw between New Delhi and the BNP. On December 1, Narendra Modi publicly expressed concern over Khaleda Zia’s health, a move that drew an unusually warm response from the BNP leadership and was interpreted as a confidence-building signal after years of mutual distrust.

Rahman is expected to contest from the Bogura-6 constituency, while Khaleda Zia is likely to retain her political base in Bogura-7. Security agencies remain alert, with reports suggesting unease among radical factions over the BNP’s mobilisation. Observers warn that political friction between the BNP and Jamaat could intensify as election day approaches.

Rahman’s political journey has been controversial. Living in London since 2008, he led the BNP from abroad while facing multiple convictions under the Hasina government, which the party described as politically motivated. He was arrested in 2007, later released on bail for medical treatment, and sentenced in absentia in the 2004 Dhaka grenade attack case — a verdict overturned in recent years as courts acquitted him in major cases.

While his return has energised the BNP, Rahman faces the complex task of unifying a fractured polity, appealing to a restless youth population and steering Bangladesh away from extremist influence. For India, the developments offer cautious optimism — and a renewed need for close attention to Dhaka’s political trajectory.