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Bangladesh election Jamaat surge: Can Jamaat-e-Islami overtake BNP in 2026 polls?
The political landscape in Bangladesh is undergoing a major shift ahead of the February 2026 general election. While the BNP was widely considered the natural frontrunner after Sheikh Hasina’s fall in 2024, the latest survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI) shows that Jamaat-e-Islami has surged dramatically, narrowing BNP’s lead to just four percentage points.
The survey reveals 33% of voters “very likely” backing the BNP, while 29% favour the Jamaat, signalling a potential upset. Jamaat also scored a higher likeability rating (53%) than the BNP (51%). The rise is reinforced by sweeping victories of Jamaat’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, across Dhaka, Rajshahi, Jahangirnagar and Chittagong universities.
Several factors explain the shift: voter fatigue with BNP workers accused of extortion, Jamaat’s stronger organisational discipline, its recent efforts to protect vulnerable communities including minorities, and internal BNP instability with Khaleda Zia critically ill and Tarique Rahman operating from London.
With Awami League barred from contesting, Hindu voters may either abstain or vote for whichever party appears more stabilising — making outcomes unpredictable.
For India, a Jamaat resurgence carries high security implications. The last BNP–Jamaat government (2001–06) allowed anti-India elements to operate from Bangladesh. Rising fundamentalism and anti-India sentiment after Hasina’s exit make the 2026 election crucial.
With just months left and sentiment shifting daily, Bangladesh may be headed for an election unlike any in recent memory.
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Published: Dec 03, 2025
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