India Q3 GDP Grows 7.8% as Government Introduces New 2022-23 Base Year Series

India’s economy expanded by 7.8% year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of FY26, according to fresh data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Nominal GDP growth for the same quarter stood at 8.9%.

The data was issued along with the Second Advance Estimates for FY2025-26 and marks a major statistical transition, as the government introduced a new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year. This replaces the earlier 2011-12 base year used for calculating constant price estimates.

Full-Year Growth Outlook for FY26

For the full financial year FY26, real GDP is estimated to grow 7.6%, compared to 7.1% recorded in FY25 under the revised series.

In value terms, real GDP for FY26 is projected at Rs 322.58 lakh crore, up from Rs 299.89 lakh crore in FY25. Nominal GDP is estimated to grow 8.6% during FY26.

Real Gross Value Added (GVA), which reflects sector-wise economic performance, is projected to rise 7.7% in FY26, compared to 7.3% in the previous year.

What the New GDP Base Year Means

The shift in the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23 updates the benchmark used to calculate growth at constant prices. Base year revisions are undertaken periodically to reflect structural changes in the economy and improve data accuracy.

According to the ministry, the revision aims to:

• Capture structural transformation in the economy

• Incorporate new and improved data sources

• Enhance estimation methodology

• Improve sectoral coverage and accuracy

Methodology Updates and New Data Sources

One of the key methodological changes is the introduction of double deflation for manufacturing and agriculture sectors. Earlier, single deflation was widely used. Double deflation adjusts both output and input prices separately, offering a more precise measure of value addition.

For most other sectors, single extrapolation methods continue to be applied.

The updated GDP series relies more heavily on granular and real-time data sources, including:

• Goods and Services Tax (GST) data

• Public Finance Management System (PFMS) data

• e-Vahan vehicle registration data

In addition, annual surveys such as the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Force Survey are being used more extensively to better capture household and informal sector activity.

The integration of the Supply Use Table framework into national accounts is another significant step aimed at reducing discrepancies between production and expenditure estimates.

Revised Past Growth Estimates

Under the new base year series:

• Real GDP growth stood at 7.2% in FY24

• Real GDP growth was revised to 7.1% in FY25

• Nominal GDP growth in FY25 was 9.7%

Sector-wise in FY25, the primary sector grew 4.9%, the secondary sector expanded 8.0%, and the services sector recorded 7.9% growth.

Officials clarified that a base year revision does not alter the real size of the economy. Instead, it modernises the statistical framework to better reflect current economic realities.

As per the official release calendar, provisional estimates for FY26 along with Q4 data will be announced on May 29, 2026.