Monsoon to Intensify: Multiple Bay of Bengal Systems to Bring Heavy Rain Across India

India's southwest monsoon is expected to remain active through the second half of August as multiple low-pressure systems are likely to form over the Bay of Bengal, bringing widespread rainfall across eastern, central and northern parts of the country.

Weather forecasts indicate that successive systems are expected to develop between August 27 and August 30, providing a steady flow of moisture and strengthening monsoon activity during the remainder of the month.

Bay of Bengal to drive monsoon rainfall

The Bay of Bengal is expected to remain the primary source of moisture for the southwest monsoon, generating multiple weather systems that will move inland and spread rainfall across several regions.

As these systems strengthen, they are likely to enhance rainfall intensity over eastern, central and northeastern India, reducing the chances of an extended dry spell.

States likely to receive heavy rainfall

Over the next two weeks, rainfall activity is expected to increase across several states, including:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Eastern Madhya Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh
• Odisha
• Jharkhand
• Bihar
• West Bengal
• Northeastern states

Many of these regions could witness frequent spells of moderate to heavy rainfall as the weather systems move inland from the Bay of Bengal.

Can August recover from the rainfall deficit?

Rainfall during August has remained uneven across the country, with some regions receiving above-normal showers while others continue to experience deficits.

The arrival of multiple low-pressure systems is expected to improve rainfall distribution and may help prevent August from ending with a significant nationwide rainfall shortfall.

However, meteorologists caution that the final outcome will depend on the strength, movement and rainfall generated by each weather system.

El Niño remains a concern

Despite the favourable monsoon outlook, the presence of an unfavourable El Niño environment continues to pose challenges for India's southwest monsoon.

El Niño can weaken atmospheric circulation patterns that support seasonal rainfall, making it more difficult for the monsoon to fully recover existing deficits.

Even with repeated weather systems, the total rainfall received over the coming weeks will determine whether the seasonal shortfall narrows significantly.

Monsoon outlook for the rest of August

Current forecasts suggest the second half of August will be considerably more active than recent weeks, with repeated low-pressure systems sustaining rainfall across large parts of the country.

If these systems intensify and follow favourable tracks, they could deliver widespread rainfall across eastern, central and northern India, helping August avoid a severe rainfall deficit even if the overall monsoon does not completely recover.

The coming fortnight is expected to be crucial in determining the final performance of India's southwest monsoon during August.