Western Disturbance to Trigger Heavy Monsoon Rain in North India From September 4

A major change in the weather pattern is expected across northern India as a Western Disturbance is likely to interact with the active monsoon axis and a low-pressure system during the first week of September.

The interaction, expected between September 4 and 7, could intensify monsoon activity across the Himalayan region and adjoining northern plains. Several states may witness widespread rainfall, with some areas facing heavy to extremely heavy showers.

Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to experience the strongest impact from the approaching weather system. Rainfall activity could intensify significantly between September 4 and 6, raising the possibility of very heavy rainfall in parts of the Himalayan states.

Monsoon activity is also expected to increase across the northern plains. Parts of western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, eastern Haryana, Chandigarh and eastern Punjab could begin receiving scattered moderate to heavy rainfall from September 3 and 4.

Initially, rainfall may remain patchy and limited in coverage as the monsoon axis and easterly winds influence weather conditions. However, the situation could change as the Western Disturbance begins interacting with the low-level monsoon trough.

This interaction could increase both the intensity and geographical coverage of rainfall, bringing widespread heavy showers to Punjab, Haryana and Delhi-NCR. Northern and eastern Rajasthan may also experience significant rainfall during this period.

The upcoming rain spell could provide important relief to Punjab and Haryana, which have experienced deficient monsoon rainfall this season. Punjab's seasonal rainfall has remained around 33 per cent below normal, while Haryana has recorded a deficit of approximately 22 per cent.

A widespread spell of rainfall around September 4 and 5 could help reduce part of the seasonal rainfall deficit in these states.

The broader monsoon situation across India, however, has remained uneven. Rainfall across the country was around 13.6 per cent below normal until September 1, reflecting significant differences in monsoon activity between regions.

Several parts of southern India have experienced deficient rainfall, while areas of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, have also faced rainfall shortages. Parts of eastern and northeastern India, including Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur, have also reported significant deficits.

Southern and northeastern parts of the country may not receive sufficient widespread rainfall during the immediate period to substantially reduce their seasonal shortfall.

Attention is therefore shifting towards northern India, where scattered showers are expected to begin from September 3. The possibility of widespread heavy rainfall between September 4 and 5 could bring a renewed phase of monsoon activity to several northern states.

As September progresses, Western Disturbances are expected to play an increasingly important role in shaping weather conditions across north India. The first major interaction of the month could mark the beginning of a stronger phase of monsoon rainfall across the Himalayan region and northern plains.