Monsoon Withdrawal 2026 is progressing across India, but the retreat of the southwest monsoon does not mean rainfall will stop immediately. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rain at isolated places in Kerala and Tamil Nadu on Saturday, October 10, alongside thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across several northern and eastern states.
Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh may experience thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and winds reaching 40–50 kmph. Punjab, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan are also likely to see isolated thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 30–40 kmph.
The forecast highlights how changing weather systems can continue to influence rainfall even as the seasonal monsoon withdrawal advances.
Northern India May See Thunderstorms and Gusty Winds
According to the IMD forecast, rainfall is likely at isolated to scattered places across Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand and parts of Rajasthan.
Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and adjoining areas may receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall. A Western Disturbance over northern Pakistan and neighbouring areas is continuing to influence weather conditions.
Western Disturbances are weather systems that can bring rain and thunderstorms to northwestern India, particularly the western Himalayan region. Their influence can produce unsettled weather even during the monsoon withdrawal period.
Residents in the affected areas should follow official weather updates, particularly where thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds are forecast.
Heavy Rain Likely in Kerala and Tamil Nadu
Southern India is also expected to experience significant weather activity. Kerala and Mahe, along with Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, may receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 10.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40–50 kmph are also expected at isolated places in these regions and Lakshadweep.
Parts of Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha may experience thunderstorms, lightning and winds reaching 30–40 kmph. Rainfall is also forecast across parts of eastern India, including Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim, while northeastern states may receive scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The intensity and distribution of rainfall may vary by location, making local IMD forecasts important for residents and travellers.
Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal Moves Forward
The IMD has indicated that conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from additional areas over the following three to four days.
The reported withdrawal line extends from parts of northeastern India through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panjim before reaching the Arabian Sea.
The withdrawal of the monsoon is a gradual process. Rainfall can continue in individual regions because of other atmospheric systems, even as the seasonal monsoon retreats.
New Weather System May Develop Over the Bay of Bengal
Another weather system could influence conditions over the coming days. An upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and neighbouring areas is expected to move into the Andaman Sea around October 11.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area may form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13. Such systems can contribute to changes in rainfall patterns, depending on their movement, intensity and development.
The potential formation of the low-pressure area means weather conditions may remain changeable in parts of the country even as the monsoon withdrawal continues.
What Residents Should Know
The IMD forecast points to contrasting conditions across India, with heavy rain possible in parts of the south and thunderstorms expected in several northern, eastern and northeastern regions.
People in affected areas should monitor official weather bulletins, exercise caution during lightning and gusty winds, and remain alert to local advisories. The forecast does not mean every listed location will receive rain, as the likelihood and intensity of weather activity can vary.
The broader outlook illustrates that the retreat of the southwest monsoon does not immediately bring dry weather everywhere. Western Disturbances and developing systems over the Bay of Bengal may continue to influence rainfall in the days ahead.
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