Egypt has emerged as one of the most closely watched potential additions to the Mecca Pact, the collective defence agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan earlier this month.
But despite Turkey openly describing Egypt as a natural partner, Cairo has yet to join the emerging security grouping.
One factor could be Egypt's longstanding strategic relationship with India, although analysts cited in the debate suggest this is only one part of a much larger calculation involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, Greece and Cyprus.
For Egypt, joining the Mecca Pact could mean taking a clearer position within a regional security alignment — something Cairo has traditionally been cautious about.
What is the Mecca Pact?
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan on August 7.
The pact establishes a collective defence framework under which an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all three.
The agreement has been described by some observers as an "Islamic Nato", and its signatories have indicated that they want to expand the grouping.
Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Azerbaijan and Syria have been identified as potential additions.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has described Egypt as a "natural partner", while Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Cairo was seriously considering the agreement, subject to constitutional and legal scrutiny.
Yet Egypt has not joined so far.
Why would Egypt be an important addition?
Egypt would significantly increase the military and strategic weight of the Mecca Pact.
The country has one of the largest armed forces in Africa and possesses a substantial fleet of modern aircraft, tanks and other military equipment.
More importantly, Egypt controls the Suez Canal, one of the world's most important maritime routes connecting Europe and Asia.
Its geographical position also gives Cairo influence across North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
That makes Egypt strategically valuable to any regional defence arrangement.
But military capability alone does not determine Cairo's foreign-policy decisions.
Saudi Arabia has reservations about Egypt
One of the biggest obstacles to Egypt joining the Mecca Pact may actually be Saudi Arabia itself.
According to a report by Middle East Eye, Saudi Arabia has opposed Egypt's entry into the alliance, at least for now.
The report, citing Saudi sources familiar with the discussions, said Riyadh has become frustrated with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's government and believes Cairo no longer offers the strategic value it once did.
Saudi Arabia has provided substantial financial support to Egypt since Sisi came to power in 2013.
However, disagreements have reportedly emerged over Egypt's role in regional conflicts, particularly Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has been involved in the conflict with the Iran-backed Houthis.
Saudi sources also reportedly pointed to Egypt's relationship with the UAE as another concern.
That matters because Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly pursued different strategic priorities despite remaining partners within the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Egypt wants to preserve strategic flexibility
Saudi reservations are only one side of the equation.
Egypt also has to consider whether joining the Mecca Pact would restrict its ability to maintain relationships with countries that have complicated relations with one or more of the three founding members.
Cairo has close ties with:
- India
- Israel
- The UAE
- Greece
- Cyprus
- The United States
- Saudi Arabia
- Turkey
Joining a formal defence bloc could potentially make some of these relationships more complicated.
This is particularly important because Egypt has traditionally attempted to maintain strategic flexibility rather than commit itself exclusively to competing regional camps.
Where does India fit into Egypt's decision?
India is an important part of this calculation, but it would be an overstatement to say that India alone is keeping Egypt out of the Mecca Pact.
India and Egypt have maintained close relations for decades.
The two countries played important roles in establishing the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, and their relationship has expanded into trade, defence and strategic cooperation.
India and Egypt elevated their relationship to a Strategic Partnership in 2023.
Their defence cooperation includes military exercises and other exchanges.
The economic relationship is also significant. According to figures cited in the original reporting, more than 700 Indian companies are registered in Egypt, with around 70 actively operating in the country and Indian investments exceeding $5.5 billion.
Bilateral trade reached around $6.5 billion in 2025-26, while Indian companies employ tens of thousands of Egyptians.
That gives Cairo a strong economic incentive to avoid unnecessarily complicating its relationship with New Delhi.
The Pakistan factor could also matter
Egypt's relationship with India becomes more relevant because Pakistan is one of the three founding members of the Mecca Pact.
Pakistan does not recognise Israel, while Egypt has maintained diplomatic relations with Israel under the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.
Egypt also maintains substantial economic and strategic ties with India.
This means joining a defence arrangement involving Pakistan could create an additional layer of complexity in Cairo's relationships with New Delhi and Tel Aviv.
However, there is no indication that Egypt's relationship with India alone determines its position.
Instead, India appears to be one component of a broader foreign-policy balancing act.
UAE ties are another major consideration
The UAE may be just as important to Cairo's calculations.
Egypt and the UAE have close political, economic and defence relations.
Egypt has also relied heavily on Emirati financial support, while the two countries have maintained security cooperation.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly found themselves pursuing divergent strategic interests.
If Egypt joined the Mecca Pact, it could therefore find itself in a difficult position between two important Gulf partners.
Cairo has little incentive to become directly involved in a Saudi-UAE strategic rivalry.
Israel, Greece and Cyprus complicate the picture
Egypt also has established relationships with Israel, Greece and Cyprus, all of which could be affected by a formal military alignment.
Egypt has maintained its peace treaty with Israel since 1979.
At the same time, Cairo has developed close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey, meanwhile, has longstanding tensions with both Greece and Cyprus.
That creates another potential complication for Egypt.
A formal defence agreement with Turkey could potentially put Cairo in an uncomfortable position with its eastern Mediterranean partners.
Egypt's traditional non-alignment matters
Egypt's hesitation can also be understood through its broader foreign-policy tradition.
The country was one of the founding forces behind the Non-Aligned Movement, alongside India and other countries that sought to avoid becoming permanently tied to competing global power blocs.
Egyptian foreign-policy calculations have continued to emphasise maintaining relationships across different camps.
Joining the Mecca Pact could therefore represent a significant shift from this approach.
As foreign-policy expert Ahmed Aboudouh of Chatham House argued, Egypt has been reluctant to commit to military blocs because of concerns about being drawn into conflicts or rivalries involving other members.
So, is India the reason Egypt is staying out?
India may be one factor, but it is unlikely to be the only or even the decisive factor.
The bigger picture involves several overlapping calculations.
Saudi Arabia reportedly has reservations about Egypt's reliability. Cairo wants to maintain its relationship with the UAE, while also preserving ties with Israel, Greece and Cyprus.
Its growing economic and strategic relationship with India adds another consideration, particularly because Pakistan is a founding member of the Mecca Pact.
For now, Egypt appears to be prioritising strategic autonomy over formal alignment.
That could change if the Mecca Pact expands or if regional security conditions deteriorate further.
But until then, Cairo may prefer to remain close to all sides rather than formally join one emerging regional security bloc.
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