India’s Monsoon Rainfall Deficit Stays at 15% as Withdrawal Nears

India’s Monsoon Rainfall Deficit Stays at 15% as Withdrawal Nears

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has entered its final phase with the country recording a 15% rainfall deficit, leaving limited time for a substantial recovery before the season withdraws. Between June 1 and September 20, India received 699.7 mm of rainfall against the normal 822 mm, according to the latest assessment.

The southwest monsoon is expected to begin withdrawing from parts of northwest India within the next five to seven days, narrowing the opportunity for widespread rainfall to reduce the national shortfall. Delhi-NCR is also nearing the end of its monsoon season, with weather models indicating limited chances of significant rain during the remainder of September.

Some northern states could still receive late-season rainfall. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may see a stronger spell between September 25 and 28, which could provide local relief, although its impact on the national deficit will depend on the intensity and geographical spread of the rainfall.

Rainfall patterns remain uneven across India. Several central and eastern regions are close to normal, while parts of northwest and southern India, including Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala, continue to report deficits.

As withdrawal progresses, widespread monsoon rainfall will become less likely. Any significant late-season improvement would increasingly depend on individual weather systems such as low-pressure areas and changes in atmospheric circulation.

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