Pakistan’s Tetra-Crisis: Airstrikes in Kabul Amid Twin Insurgencies

On October 9, 2025, Pakistan launched airstrikes on Kabul and other Afghan cities, targeting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), believed to operate from Afghan safe havens. The strikes coincided with Taliban Foreign Minister Maulavi Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi, marking the highest-level contact between the Afghan Taliban and India since 2021.

TTP Threats:

• Chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud is believed to be the target.

• Since January 2025, the TTP has killed over 900 Pakistani military personnel, making it the bloodiest year since 2009.

• The October 7 ambush in Orakzai District killed 17 Pakistani soldiers, including a Lt Colonel and Major.

Af-Pak Tensions:

• Pakistan blames Taliban for sheltering TTP in Khost and Paktika provinces.

• October 9 strikes mark an escalation compared to smaller 2024 airstrikes.

• Potential for Taliban retaliation remains high.

Internal and External Challenges – The Tetra-Crisis:

1. India: Long-standing border tensions require military vigilance.

2. Afghanistan: Rising Af-Pak clashes strain resources.

3. Balochistan Insurgency: Persistent internal security threat.

4. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Insurgency: Ongoing TTP attacks demand troop deployment.

Geopolitical Angle:

• US involvement: Pakistan leverages military support for advanced F-16s and AMRAAM missiles.

• Offers of Pasni port and rare earth access to the US aim to bolster ties.

• Tensions threaten stability of Central Asian transit corridors.

Historical Context:

• The Pakistan Army’s dual role during the War on Terror (2001–2021) continues to haunt strategic credibility.

• Post-2021 US withdrawal, Pakistan’s hopes for “strategic depth” via Afghanistan collapsed, exacerbating border tensions and refugee challenges.

The October 9 strikes mark a new flashpoint in the Af-Pak rift, as Field Marshal Asim Munir manages simultaneous external threats and internal insurgencies, creating a rare tetra-crisis scenario for Pakistan.