India Rice Production May Fall 6.5% as Weak Rains Hit Yields

India Rice Production May Fall 6.5% as Weak Rains Hit Yields

India’s rice production could decline by around 10 million metric tonnes this year as below-normal rainfall during the crop’s maturation period reduces yields, industry officials said. The estimated fall would be about 6.5% from last year’s record output of 154 million tonnes and could represent the country’s sharpest production decline since the 2009-10 drought.

A prolonged dry spell has affected rice-growing regions, particularly in parts of southern and eastern India. Overall monsoon rainfall has been 15% below normal since June 1, while deficits in some rice-producing states have reached 42%.

The area planted with summer rice stood at 42.68 million hectares by September 11, nearly 4% below the previous year. Summer crops account for more than 80% of India’s total rice production. Lower reservoir levels could also affect winter-season planting.

Reduced output has already contributed to higher domestic rice prices, with export prices reaching their highest level in more than a year. Premium-rice farmers could receive better prices in open markets, potentially reducing government procurement.

However, India has a substantial stock buffer. Rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, reached a record 59.6 million tonnes on September 1, well above the government’s October 1 target of 10.3 million tonnes.

The large inventories could allow India to maintain rice exports despite the expected production decline, although weaker output may continue putting upward pressure on domestic prices.

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Published: 8h ago

cricket blog team

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