Bihar Election Results: NDA Surpasses Amit Shah’s 160+ Forecast With Massive Lead Across 186 Seats

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is heading toward a decisive and commanding victory in Bihar, surpassing even the bold projections made by Union Home Minister Amit Shah before the state went to polls. As trends poured in on counting day, the alliance raced past 186 seats—well above Shah’s forecast of “160-plus”—signalling a mandate stronger than even its own leadership had anticipated.

Across the NDA bloc, the early leads revealed a broad and sustained surge. The BJP emerged as the strongest performer, holding leads in 84 seats, followed closely by Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), which led in 76 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) maintained a notable presence with leads in 22 constituencies, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) commanded four seats. Collectively, the alliance appears poised to secure a result that goes beyond the two-thirds majority Amit Shah had confidently predicted during the campaign.

Speaking to India Today TV before voting, Shah had insisted the NDA was positioned for a “clear and comfortable victory,” and when pressed about numbers, he reiterated that the coalition would comfortably cross the 160-seat threshold. He further expressed confidence that both the BJP and JD(U) would achieve “equal strike rates,” reflecting internal stability within the alliance. The trends now suggest that his forecast was, if anything, conservative.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is headed for a disappointing performance. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which had secured 114 seats in the previous assembly, is now leading in only 32 seats despite Tejashwi Yadav’s intense campaigning targeting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. His efforts appear to have fallen short of translating discontent into electoral gains.

The Congress, often seen as the alliance’s weakest link, continues its pattern of underwhelming results. Contesting 61 seats, the party is leading in only seven. This echoes its 2020 performance, where Congress contested 70 seats but managed to win only 19—dragging down the broader alliance despite stronger performances by RJD and Left parties.

Analysts note that this election highlights a recurring theme in Bihar politics: alliances tethered to the Congress often struggle to maximise potential gains, while the NDA’s cohesive organisational machinery, coupled with Nitish Kumar’s administrative legacy, continues to resonate with voters across the state.

As the NDA edges toward a landslide, the mandate reinforces the enduring influence of its leadership and the alliance’s ability to galvanise support even in a competitive political environment. With counting still underway, the coalition appears set to deliver one of its strongest electoral performances in Bihar in recent years.