Russia May Deploy Nuclear Hypersonic Missiles in Belarus, Expanding Threat to Europe

Russia may be preparing to deploy nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles in Belarus, a move that could significantly expand Moscow’s strike reach across Europe and further escalate tensions with NATO, according to a report by US defence researchers analysing satellite imagery.

The assessment suggests that Russia is likely positioning Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus. The findings broadly align with US intelligence assessments, according to a source familiar with the matter, though no official confirmation has been issued.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously announced plans to deploy Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, but the precise location had not been disclosed until now. The missile system is believed to have a range of up to 5,500 km, placing much of Europe within potential strike distance.

Satellite imagery points to missile base

The findings were published by researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research organisation. Their analysis of Planet Labs satellite imagery shows infrastructure consistent with a Russian strategic missile base at a former airfield near Krichev, roughly 300 km east of Minsk.

The researchers said they were around 90% confident that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be deployed at the site. Russia previously test-fired a conventionally armed Oreshnik missile at Ukraine in November 2024, with Putin claiming the weapon was impossible to intercept due to speeds exceeding Mach 10.

Imagery reviewed by the researchers indicates hurried construction activity beginning in early August, including a secure rail transfer point suitable for missile delivery and a concrete pad near a runway believed to be a camouflaged launch site.

Strategic and political implications

Defence analysts say the deployment underscores Russia’s increasing reliance on nuclear deterrence to dissuade NATO countries from supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking deep inside Russian territory.

John Foreman, a defence expert at Chatham House and former British defence attaché in Moscow, said the move would allow Russia to extend its missile coverage deeper into Europe. He added that it could also be a response to the planned deployment of US conventional missiles, including the hypersonic Dark Eagle system, in Germany next year.

Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin has downplayed the implications, saying the deployment would not alter Europe’s balance of power and described it as a response to what Minsk views as Western aggression.

Arms control concerns grow

The potential deployment comes weeks ahead of the expiry of the 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining US-Russia agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapons. Putin has said Oreshnik missiles could be stationed in Belarus during the second half of 2025, while Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has claimed that some missiles have already been delivered, without revealing locations.

However, the US researchers assessed that the identified base could house only three launchers, suggesting additional deployments may be planned elsewhere.

Not all experts agree that the move offers significant military advantages. Geneva-based nuclear analyst Pavel Podvig said deploying the missiles in Belarus may be largely symbolic, aimed more at reassuring Minsk than changing NATO’s threat calculus.

Others argue the deployment sends a powerful political message. “There’s no military necessity to put these systems in Belarus — the logic is political signalling,” Lewis said.

The development comes as US President Donald Trump continues diplomatic efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine war, even as Kyiv presses Western allies for expanded long-range strike capabilities.