Super El Nino Could Cause 4.51 Lakh Additional Heat Deaths Globally: Report

Super El Nino Could Cause 4.51 Lakh Additional Heat Deaths Globally: Report

A developing El Nino could lead to an estimated 4,51,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, according to an estimate by Climate Impact Lab. The figure represents deaths above the average expected level, using data from 1996 to 2025 as the baseline, rather than deaths already recorded.

The projected impact is expected to be concentrated in the Global South. The Sahel could see around 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad. Southeast Asia could record about 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, while Indonesia is estimated at 19,300. India’s projected additional heat-related deaths stand at 15,800, while Brazil’s estimate is 13,300.

The report said the estimates could help governments strengthen heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration facilities, protections for outdoor workers and healthcare preparedness.

The World Meteorological Organisation said El Nino was firmly established and could strengthen further, potentially peaking around November and December. It also estimated a near-100% chance of the phenomenon continuing through February 2027.

The report warned that heat-related deaths could continue rising into the summer of 2027, particularly across India and Pakistan. Researchers said the current conditions highlight how extreme heat risks projected for future decades are already becoming more visible.

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Published: 1h ago

cricket blog team

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