UAE-Backed Yemen Separatists Call for Independence Referendum Amid Escalating Clashes

Yemen’s fragile political balance has been thrown into deeper uncertainty after the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed separatist movement, announced plans to hold a referendum on southern independence within the next two years. The declaration comes amid escalating military clashes with Saudi-backed government forces over control of strategically vital regions.

The separatist announcement followed renewed fighting in Hadramout, one of Yemen’s most resource-rich and geopolitically sensitive provinces. Government-aligned forces, supported by Saudi Arabia, launched an operation to reclaim areas seized by the STC during a surprise advance in early December. That offensive dramatically altered the balance of power in southern Yemen and fractured the already fragile coalition opposing the Iran-backed Houthis.

Yemen has been locked in conflict for more than a decade, with the country effectively split between Houthi-controlled northern territories and southern regions nominally governed by the internationally recognised government but heavily influenced by separatist factions. The STC’s call for a referendum marks its clearest signal yet that it intends to pursue full secession from the north, a move that risks formalising Yemen’s division.

The renewed fighting has also exposed widening fault lines between two key Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, both of whom have supported rival factions within Yemen. While Saudi Arabia continues to back the internationally recognised government, the UAE has long provided political and military support to southern separatists, creating competing interests on the ground.

Officials aligned with the government confirmed that operations were underway to restore control over Hadramout, including the recapture of a major military base. Local tribal groups and separatist sources acknowledged that airstrikes were used during the operation, though casualty figures remain unclear. The STC has placed its forces on high alert and warned it would respond forcefully to any further advances.

Hadramout’s importance extends beyond Yemen’s borders. The oil-producing province shares a long border with Saudi Arabia, and many influential Saudi families trace their roots to the region. Its seizure by separatist forces last month was widely viewed in Riyadh as a direct strategic threat.

The separatist push has also triggered political manoeuvring at the regional level. Yemen’s presidential council chief has reportedly sought Saudi mediation through a proposed forum aimed at resolving the “southern question” by bringing together all political factions, including the STC. Saudi Arabia has welcomed the proposal and urged participation, signalling concern over the escalating crisis.

Tensions remain high despite the UAE’s recent announcement that it would withdraw its remaining troops from Yemen. While the pullout briefly eased diplomatic strain between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, disagreements among local actors continue to fuel instability. The conflict has also disrupted civilian life, with flights suspended at Aden International Airport, the main gateway to non-Houthi-controlled areas.

The STC’s referendum proposal risks hardening divisions at a moment when Yemen’s peace prospects are already fragile. Analysts warn that any unilateral push for independence could further derail diplomatic efforts, entrench regional rivalries, and prolong a conflict that has already devastated the country.