Will Gold Stay Above ₹1.30 Lakh? Experts Predict Consolidation Before Next Big Move

Gold prices in India remained stable on Thursday as traders adopted a wait-and-watch stance ahead of next week’s crucial US Federal Reserve policy meeting. With global volatility and mixed economic cues shaping sentiment, bullion prices moved within a narrow range.

Gold futures on the MCX opened at ₹1,30,799 per 10 grams, slightly higher than the previous close, before slipping to ₹1,30,414. Spot prices later fell to ₹1,29,837, down 0.48%, while silver dropped 1.35% to ₹1,79,890.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP–Commodities at Mehta Equities, the session saw sharp intraday swings.
He noted, “Gold and silver witnessed high volatility—recovering from intraday lows but failing to hold gains. Weak US labour data pushed the dollar below 99, supporting precious metals, while geopolitical tensions kept safe-haven demand firm.”

Kalantri added key levels for bullion:

• Gold support: ₹1,29,450–₹1,28,750

• Gold resistance: ₹1,30,950–₹1,31,700

• Silver support: ₹1,80,750–₹1,79,200

• Silver resistance: ₹1,83,510–₹1,84,670

Why Gold Surged in 2025

Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, explained that gold’s strong performance in 2025 resulted from a combination of global and domestic factors.
Persistent geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and aggressive central-bank buying lifted prices. In India, the softer rupee and festive-season demand further boosted the metal.

Maxwell called it a “perfect storm” that fuelled gold’s outperformance through most of the year.

Will Gold Stay Above ₹1.30 Lakh?

Looking ahead, Maxwell believes the current downturn may simply be a healthy consolidation after gold’s impressive rally.
“The main drivers remain intact—central bank accumulation, geopolitical risk, a softer dollar, and cautious global growth. As long as gold holds key support levels, the broader trend is upward, though gains may be slower,” he said.

He suggests steady accumulation or buying on dips, rather than waiting for a major correction.

Risks to Gold Prices in 2026

Maxwell warned that several factors could weigh on gold next year:

• A stronger US dollar

• Higher real interest rates

• Fed delaying rate cuts due to strong US labour data or sticky inflation

• Easing geopolitical tensions

• Appreciation of the Indian rupee

• Reduced central-bank gold buying after heavy accumulation in 2025

Any of these could weaken gold’s momentum in 2026.