West Bengal Rajya Sabha Polls 2026: TMC Set for 4 Seats, BJP Likely to Win 1

West Bengal is heading into a crucial Rajya Sabha election cycle, with five seats set to fall vacant ahead of the March 16, 2026 polls. Based on the current strength in the 294-member Assembly, the contest appears largely tilted in favour of the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leaving little room for other parties.

In the previous cycle, four seats were held by the TMC and one by the CPI(M). However, the present numbers suggest a shift, with the TMC expected to retain four seats and the BJP poised to capture one.

The Assembly Arithmetic

The TMC currently has around 223–225 MLAs in the Assembly. With the required vote threshold in mind, the party comfortably has the numbers to secure four Rajya Sabha seats without depending on external support.

The BJP, which holds approximately 64–65 MLAs, needs 49 votes to win a single Rajya Sabha seat. The party has sufficient strength to achieve this independently. However, after allocating votes for one seat, it will be left with a surplus of around 15–16 votes, which is insufficient to secure a second seat unless unexpected cross-voting occurs.

For the Left and Congress, the situation is far more challenging. With minimal effective representation in the Assembly — apart from the Indian Secular Front (ISF) — the CPI(M)’s lone Rajya Sabha seat is almost certain to be lost.

Outgoing Members and Political Stakes

Several prominent leaders are completing their Rajya Sabha terms from West Bengal.

Among them is Ritabrata Banerjee of the TMC, who was earlier associated with the CPI(M) before switching political sides. Another outgoing TMC MP is Saket Gokhale, who has emerged as one of the party’s prominent national voices.

Subrata Bakshi, a senior TMC leader and long-time associate of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is also completing his term. Bakshi has played key organisational and administrative roles within the party and the state government.

Mausam Benazir Noor, who had earlier represented the TMC in the Rajya Sabha, vacated her seat after resigning from the party and rejoining the Congress.

On the Left front, Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is completing his tenure. A senior advocate and former Mayor of Kolkata, he has been an active voice in Parliament and has represented the Left in several key legal and political matters.

Political Outlook

Given the current numbers, the Rajya Sabha elections in West Bengal are expected to reinforce the dominance of the TMC while giving the BJP a confirmed foothold in the Upper House from the state. The Left and Congress, however, appear unlikely to alter the outcome unless unforeseen political developments reshape the equation.