India's four-month southwest monsoon has ended with a 13% rainfall deficit, but the country's water concerns are far from over. As farmers prepare for the rabi season, attention is shifting from rainfall totals to the amount of water actually stored in soil, reservoirs and groundwater.
The impact is already visible in parts of the country. Maharashtra has declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas after deficient rainfall and prolonged dry spells affected agriculture and water availability.
Why the rabi season faces pressure
Unlike kharif crops, which largely depend on the southwest monsoon, rabi crops such as wheat, gram and mustard rely more heavily on residual soil moisture, irrigation, reservoirs and groundwater. A weaker monsoon does not automatically mean a failed rabi season, but poor or uneven rainfall can leave farmers with less water for sowing and crop growth.
The situation could become more challenging if post-monsoon rainfall remains limited. The India Meteorological Department expects October rainfall to be below normal across much of the country, although parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India and some eastern regions may receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
El Nino adds another challenge
Strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific are adding uncertainty to India's weather outlook. IMD models indicate that the phenomenon could strengthen through the end of the year.
Above-normal temperatures expected across much of India in October could further increase evaporation and water demand.
For South Peninsular India, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka, rainfall during October-December is expected to remain within the normal range.
For farmers elsewhere, however, the end of the monsoon may only mark the beginning of another water challenge. The real test will be whether existing soil moisture, reservoirs and groundwater can support crops through the winter.
Read more about rainfall here- IMD India.
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